DON'T COUNT OBAMA OUT – AT 8:57 A.M. ET:  A new poll supports the argument we've been advancing here that President Obama, despite setbacks, remains a potent force for 2012.  From The Politico:

President Barack Obama faces an unsure but still supportive electorate heading into the 2012 campaign, a new poll suggests.

In the Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll released late Wednesday, 42 percent of Americans said they would probably vote to reelect the president, while 39 percent said they would vote for a generic Republican candidate.

Not exactly a vote of confidence for the president, who only leads by three points when matched against nobody.  But there's better news for Mr. Obama:

Matched up with specific Republican presidential hopefuls, Obama does better. If Mitt Romney were the Republican candidate, 47 percent of respondents said they would vote for Obama, while 40 percent said they would vote for the former Massachusetts governor.

Romney is one of the better known Republican candidates, and has been running since Creation.  If this is the best he can, he has major work ahead.

Other potential 2012 candidates get less support. Pitted against former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, Obama gets 55 percent of the vote while Palin gets 33 percent. And 47 percent said they would vote for Obama against Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), while 27 percent said they’d vote for Thune.

The Thune numbers are insignificant because not enough voters know him yet.  The Palin numbers, though, are pretty devastating.  Everybody knows Sarah, and has had two years now to make a judgment about her.  While her numbers may well improve, she cannot, right now, make a strong claim to the presidential nomination. 

Reader Chris Corbett relays a quote from conservative political science Professor Charles Dunn, of Regent University:  "She's not demonstrated the seriousness of purpose. [And] she's not taken the vocal training that she should," he suggests. "She comes off more like a high school cheerleader rather than a serious aspirant for the Republican presidential nomination."

I'm afraid there's some truth to that.  And there' some truth to the notion, which you hear constantly, that the GOP doesn't have a real star to run against Obama in 2012.  I'm not sure I agree.  The new senator from Florida, Marco Rubio, is a star.  He's everybody's choice for vice president.  I'm willing to speculate that, sometime before the 2012 election, Rubio might look in the mirror and ask, "Vice president?"  After all, he's the former speaker of the Florida House, and will have had more experience by the 2012 election than Barack Obama had before the 2008 election.  If a star is needed, one is available.  Rubio could sew up critical Florida, and, as a Hispanic, could make a dent in the traditionally Democratic Hispanic vote.

December 16, 2010